PaulSpoerry.com

Net Applications, published some interesting data about Mozilla’s Firefox in this month’s newsletter. Specifically, they’re projecting that users of the world’s favorite alternative browser will account for 20% of all web traffic sometime in July.

“Net Applications Global Internet Usage Market Share for May 2008 shows Firefox gaining more momentum,” said Vince Vizzaccaro, executive vice president, marketing. “Firefox market share for May was 18.41% up from 17.76% in April. If recent trends continue, Firefox should achieve 20% market share some time in July.”

Source: Net Applications

It’s all in the timing

However, with Firefox 3 RC 1 already in circulation and the full release expected soon, Mozilla may be able to steal a march and shoot past 20% before the end of June.

Firefox 3 RC 1 has been my browser of choice, I love the thing. Already, prerelease versions of Firefox 3 account for close to 1% of web traffic as measured by Net Applications

Lastly, SpreadFirefox.com is planning a major marketing push for the release of Firefox 3 with the Download Day 2008 promotion, whereby backers hope to break the single-day record for the number of downloads for a single piece of software.

Whereas Firefox growth to date has been slow and steady, it seems to me that the time may be right for a major surge in adoption.

Techcrunch posted an article stating “Gartner Says Vista Will Collapse. And That’s Why The Yahoo Deal Must Happen”.The last paragraph sums up the Gartner view:

The real question isn’t “What can Microsoft do to fix their Windows product?” but rather “Even If Windows and Office were perfect, would it be enough to keep Microsoft relevant in the medium term?” I think the answer to that latter question might be “nope.” And that, of course, is why they want Yahoo so badly. Online advertising revenue is their only real hope of long term survival.

This of course is a complete load of crap. Vista WAS handled poorly by Microsoft, but its not the collapse of Windows by any stretch of the imagination. The most laughable thing is that while so called “analysts” are predicting the demise of Windows,Vista alone (ie, not counting Windows server or XP) still has more market share than *nix and OS X COMBINED. The real reason Vista isn’t selling as well as MS hoped is because of Windows XP. XP has turned out to be a mature, stable, and secure OS. Vista has new plumbing and the kinks are still being worked out (to be expected). The underlying plumbing put into Vista however will position it for the long term, and XP will ultimately be phased out. Don’t count Vista, or Windows as a whole “out”.

The image below shows Windows market share versus the only other statistically relevant OS’s (ie, over 1% market share) as of March 2008.

It’s true that *nix based systems have made some inroads in business computing, however, Windows still controls 90% of the market. Linux doesn’t even show up on the list… it ranks at  0.61% (though OS X REALLY is a flavor of unix so you could count that in the *nix category) Ask any non-geek what OS they run and you’ll get two answers, Windows or OS X, but mostly just windows. The people predicting these things needs to step out of the basement and away from their Tux stuff animals for a bit and look at the real world. Could the apple cart be upset, absolutely, but it won’t happen over night and Microsoft will have time to react.